Aug. 7 (2:40am EST)- EUR/USD has been on a range bound mode since the market open this week, with the high at 1.3838 and low of 1.3778. Since there would be a Fed interest rate announcement later, I'm expecting a breakout from the 2 levels that I've mentioned.
An opportunity arise for a breakout straddle. Here's what I'll do:
- Set buy stop at 1.3843, 1.3858 TP with SL of 1.3775
- Set sell stop at 1.3842, 1.3758 TP with SL of 1.3842
If a few minutes before the US interest rate announcement and the price is still at the middle of the buy and sell levels, I'll cancel the orders. It should be near or passed neither orders. .... and probably will put a trailing stop (depends on indicators).
Since I have bagged $145 yesterday for Volker account, even if the straddle didn't work out, it won't hurt much.
Please be remind that this site is not a signal service provider. I'm just posting what I'm doing on my managed portfolios. Trade it at your own risk.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
GBP/JPY 4h chart seems to be forming a inverted head & shoulder. Price must pass above 243.11 neckline to confirm an uptrend. Since EUR/CHF is a follower of GBP/JPY, the confirmation of the H&S formation will be also uptrend for the EUR/CHF.
EUR/CHF on the daily chart seems also forming a double bottom, but the formation is not that clear as the GBP/JPY. Price need to cross above 1.6534 neckline to confirm the formation. 1.6687 is the target if neckline broke. Bearish bias is still intact unless 1.6534 is breached.
Dow Jones healthy gains yesterday also support the above views.
Opportunity to Straddle
A recap of today's move. End of 2nd week trade
This is the continues chart (zoom in) I posted earlier. Remember those significant levels I've said earlier? Price roam all of it in a span of 16 hours.
Here's what I did. When the price touched the upper channel and the Stoch, CCI indis crossed down; I open a short (sell) hedge. At 4am EST, there were 2 EUR news announcements followed by ECB President Trichet dovish speech. Both news was negative bias to the Euro, German Ifo Business Climate Index came out 107.0 with expectations of 108.4 and the German Ifo Business Expectations Index came out 102.8 from 104.8 expectations. The news gave eur/chf a whipsaw then fall straight down to the 38.2 fibo. Then afterward drop to the lower channel... made a small correction back to the 38.2 fibo before continues its down move to the 50 fibo. The bear lost steam from there 'til market close of the week. I closed the positions on the third bounce of the lower channel.
To make it short. It was another perfect call.
PMTFC end the week with a total of $3420 equity, and $7357 for TN's account. I know the results this week is not something to hoot and holler, but it is better to end the week with small profits than small lose.
Here are the reasons of the small gained:
- If eur/chf is trending downward, I will only trade with small margin. It is because short hedge position/s is risky with a uptrending carry trade pairs.
- The Fed is pressuring the Chinese government to slow down their fast rising currency. If the yuan makes an impulsive drop, we will see a snowball effect to the global market, just like last Feb-Mar. Related topic here> forex factory
- There is also the subprime mortgage problem going on in the States. Like what happened last February. More of the story here> CNBC
- More of current negative news of EUR. Related topic here> bloomberg
- Japan's possible of a .25bp rate increase, which will tighten the interest rate gaps of major pairs. Related topic here> forex factory
All this will affect the carrys. You can read the CNBC news article yesterday, here CNBC
