Analysis for 6.14.07

June 14 (3am EST)- 4hr chart. Eur/Chf price has just breach down from a long term trendline (red line, this is also the same trendline I discussed over PMT forum a few weeks back).

Since price just broke a trendline and came down from upper bolinger band, Stoch just crossed downward, and RSI and CCI also passed the upper level down. There is a possibility that price would reach 1.6533 which is in the middle of the band and 23.6% of fibo. If the bear momentum is too strong, it can also reach 1.6513 which is where the lower band and 38.2% of fibo and a short term trendline meet. Those are the retracement level that need to focus on. You can risk a "small" percentage of your margin on each of those levels for a buy hedge.

As for the update of my trades. Fot both account, Price just hovered between the buy and sell positions all through out the day. I don't have any plans on taking up another trade positions since I already used up 9% margin for TN acct and 5% used margin for PMTFC acct. I know I still have 10% reserve margin left to use for PMTFC, but my concern is the China economy. Chinese from students, maids, laborers to retirees has gone ga-ga to their local stocks over the pass few weeks and the said actions appreciated the yuan by a bit more than 8 pct since July 2005. This causes foreign exchange rate imbalancement. Sooner or later china bubble will burst, increasing risk of this renewed boom-bust cycle, would be quite harmful for the world economy. This will have a snowball effect to Dow Jones down to the carry trades if it happens. It pays to be prudent, trade with smaller margin 'til dust has settled down.