Fed to Cut Rates Next Month?

In recent speeches, two high-ranking officials from America’s Federal Reserve Bank gave conflicting indications regarding the likelihood of rate cuts next month. Both officials were deliberately ambiguous in their speeches, though one went so far as to rule out a rate cut while the other hinted at its inevitability. Nonetheless, analysts used the speeches to buttress their conclusion that a rate cut is probable. In fact, the futures market has priced in a 94% chance that rates will be cut by 25 basis points at the next meeting, on December 11. Likewise, it seems a rate cut has already been priced into the USD.

Erratic & Choppy 48hrs

Orange lines= Fibonacci levels
Green lines= Channel lines
Purple line= 72EMA
Vertical white lines= 24hrs period seperator

The low of Monday is where the hammer candle is on 4h chart. Price loss volume on its way up. On the second attemp on tuesday, there where cluster of resistant lines stopped the bull, falling back down to the 61.8 fibo.

It was a choppy market for the past 2 days. No gains and no loss on both manage accounts. For a short term trade, the 2 fibo should be the levels to watch, break of the 50 fibo is a uptrend and assertive downtrend if it breaks below 61.8 fibo.

For the fundamental side. Subprime mortgage concerns is still there, the ailing Bear Sterns top wallstreet rival refuse to give aid, according to bloomberg yesterday. China stocks decline for 2 consecutive days. The expectations of US Fed holding their interest rate this week might push the dollar lower. Risk aversion to safer bonds continues. All this support the carrys unwind view.