1.4.08 EUR/CHF Analysis

EUR/CHF Daily Chart



A side by side double top that I missed. Dragging the price down to the lower trendline. Stoch & CCI both are oversold but ADX showing strong bearish volume. Are we gonna see a reversal here?

If it bounced, expect price to touch the upper trendline. If it broke below, expect target or reversal at 1.6218. 2nd target or reversal point is at the round number 1.6000.

The above chart is a daily chart for long term view. Don't expect to see price reached targets in a single day trade.

EUR/CHF 12.18 Analysis

EURCHF daily chart- It broke the (minor) support trendline yesterday with great volume suggesting a bearish trend formed.

Price now at 1.6550, 50% fib of Oct. 29 high to Nov. 23 low. Confluence with the 72EMA (purple line). I think price will bounce a bit from here before go down further.

Game Plan: If it make a upward correction today, and your positions reached breakeven, close it. Stay away from the market 'til the upper trendline (orange line) on the daily chart is broke. Lower trendline is a good level to start a long hedge, if you still have enough margin left to risk. But before that, watch out on 1.6500 to 1.6450 level, another minor support level before the lower trendline.

PMTFC first trade

On the chart I posted earlier. If you drew a trendline from its highest high (head) down to the right shoulder, you will see a resistance line stretching down to 1.6515. The Stoch and CCI is now curved down showing a possible bear move. Using 1% of margin, I took a short (sell) hedge position when price bounce off that trendline down back to 1.6506.

This might just be a short term trade. 1.6478 is a good exit point. It is the 50% fibo of previous swing and lower trendline is in-line with it. But then again, the exit will depends mainly on what indicators tells us...

If price went against the initial sell hedge and candle close above the upper trendline. I will open a long (buy) hedge position with 3 or 4% margin. This way, the gain will offset the loss later.